RT Journal Article ID 7d41c3a64ba14ca8 A1 Cox, Jonathan A1 House, Donald A1 Lindell, Michael T1 VISUALIZING UNCERTAINTY IN PREDICTED HURRICANE TRACKS JF International Journal for Uncertainty Quantification JO IJUQ YR 2013 FD 2012-12-06 VO 3 IS 2 SP 143 OP 156 K1 hurricane prediction K1 uncertainty visualization K1 Markov process K1 kernel methods AB The error cone is a display produced by the National Hurricane Center in order to present its predictions of the path of a hurricane. While the error cone is one of the primary tools used by officials, and the general public, to make emergency response decisions, the uncertainty underlying this display can be easily misunderstood. This paper explores the design of an alternate display that provides a continually updated set of possible hurricane tracks, whose ensemble distribution closely matches the underlying statistics of a hurricane prediction. We explain the underlying algorithm and data structures, and demonstrate how our displays compare with the error cone. Finally, we review the design and results of a user study that we conducted as a preliminary test of the efficacy of our approach in communicating prediction uncertainty. PB Begell House LK https://www.dl.begellhouse.com/journals/52034eb04b657aea,3b447596502fa0fe,7d41c3a64ba14ca8.html