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International Journal for Uncertainty Quantification

Publicado 6 números por año

ISSN Imprimir: 2152-5080

ISSN En Línea: 2152-5099

The Impact Factor measures the average number of citations received in a particular year by papers published in the journal during the two preceding years. 2017 Journal Citation Reports (Clarivate Analytics, 2018) IF: 1.7 To calculate the five year Impact Factor, citations are counted in 2017 to the previous five years and divided by the source items published in the previous five years. 2017 Journal Citation Reports (Clarivate Analytics, 2018) 5-Year IF: 1.9 The Immediacy Index is the average number of times an article is cited in the year it is published. The journal Immediacy Index indicates how quickly articles in a journal are cited. Immediacy Index: 0.5 The Eigenfactor score, developed by Jevin West and Carl Bergstrom at the University of Washington, is a rating of the total importance of a scientific journal. Journals are rated according to the number of incoming citations, with citations from highly ranked journals weighted to make a larger contribution to the eigenfactor than those from poorly ranked journals. Eigenfactor: 0.0007 The Journal Citation Indicator (JCI) is a single measurement of the field-normalized citation impact of journals in the Web of Science Core Collection across disciplines. The key words here are that the metric is normalized and cross-disciplinary. JCI: 0.5 SJR: 0.584 SNIP: 0.676 CiteScore™:: 3 H-Index: 25

Indexed in

PRIOR AND POSTERIOR ROBUST STOCHASTIC PREDICTIONS FOR DYNAMICAL SYSTEMS USING PROBABILITY LOGIC

Volumen 3, Edición 4, 2013, pp. 271-288
DOI: 10.1615/Int.J.UncertaintyQuantification.2012003641
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SINOPSIS

An overview is given of a powerful unifying probabilistic framework for treating modeling uncertainty, along with input uncertainty, when using dynamic models to predict the response of a system during its design or operation. This framework uses probability as a multivalued conditional logic for quantitative plausible reasoning in the presence of uncertainty due to incomplete information. The fundamental probability models that represent the system's uncertain behavior are specified by the choice of a stochastic system model class: a set of input–output probability models for the system and a prior probability distribution over this set that quantifies the relative plausibility of each model. A model class can be constructed from a parametrized deterministic system model by stochastic embedding which utilizes Jaynes' principle of maximum information entropy. Robust predictive analyses use the entire model class with the probabilistic predictions of each model being weighted by its prior probability, or if response data are available, by its posterior probability from Bayes' theorem for the model class. Additional robustness to modeling uncertainty comes from combining the robust predictions of each model class in a set of competing candidates weighted by the prior or posterior probability of the model class, the latter being computed from Bayes' theorem. This higher-level application of Bayes' theorem automatically applies a quantitative Ockham razor that penalizes the data-fit of more complex model classes that extract more information from the data. Robust predictive analyses involve integrals over high-dimensional spaces that usually must be evaluated numerically by Laplace's method of asymptotic approximation or by Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. These computational tools are demonstrated in an illustrative example involving the vertical dynamic response of a car being driven along a rough road.

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