每年出版 6 期
ISSN 打印: 2152-5080
ISSN 在线: 2152-5099
Indexed in
PROBABILISTIC QUANTIFICATION OF HAZARDS: A METHODOLOGY USING SMALL ENSEMBLES OF PHYSICS-BASED SIMULATIONS AND STATISTICAL SURROGATES
摘要
This paper presents a novel approach to assessing the hazard threat to a locale due to a large volcanic avalanche. The methodology combines: (i) mathematical modeling of volcanic mass flows; (ii) field data of avalanche frequency, volume, and runout; (iii) large-scale numerical simulations of flow events; (iv) use of statistical methods to minimize computational costs, and to capture unlikely events; (v) calculation of the probability of a catastrophic flow event over the next T years at a location of interest; and (vi) innovative computational methodology to implement these methods. This unified presentation collects elements that have been separately developed, and incorporates new contributions to the process. The field data and numerical simulations used here are subject to uncertainty from many sources, uncertainties that must be properly accounted for in assessing the hazard. The methodology presented here will be demonstrated with data from the Soufriere Hills Volcano on the island of Montserrat, where there is a relatively complete record of volcanic mass flows from the past 15 years. This methodology can be transferred to other volcanic sites with similar characteristics and where sparse historical data have prevented such high-quality analysis. More generally, the core of this methodology is widely applicable and can be used for other hazard scenarios, such as floods or ash plumes.
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Bevilacqua Andrea, Bursik Marcus, Patra Abani, Bruce Pitman E., Yang Qingyuan, Sangani Radhika, Kobs‐Nawotniak Shannon, Late Quaternary Eruption Record and Probability of Future Volcanic Eruptions in the Long Valley Volcanic Region (CA, USA), Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 123, 7, 2018. Crossref
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Bevilacqua Andrea, Patra Abani K., Bursik Marcus I., Pitman E. Bruce, Macías José Luis, Saucedo Ricardo, Hyman David, Probabilistic forecasting of plausible debris flows from Nevado de Colima (Mexico) using data from the Atenquique debris flow, 1955, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 19, 4, 2019. Crossref
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Rutarindwa Regis, Spiller Elaine T., Bevilacqua Andrea, Bursik Marcus I., Patra Abani K., Dynamic Probabilistic Hazard Mapping in the Long Valley Volcanic Region CA: Integrating Vent Opening Maps and Statistical Surrogates of Physical Models of Pyroclastic Density Currents, Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 124, 9, 2019. Crossref
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Hyman David M., Bevilacqua Andrea, Bursik Marcus I., Statistical theory of probabilistic hazard maps: a probability distribution for the hazard boundary location, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 19, 7, 2019. Crossref
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Clarke Ben, Tierz Pablo, Calder Eliza, Yirgu Gezahegn, Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment for Pyroclastic Density Currents From Pumice Cone Eruptions at Aluto Volcano, Ethiopia, Frontiers in Earth Science, 8, 2020. Crossref
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Patra Abani, Bevilacqua Andrea, Akhavan-Safaei Ali, Pitman E. Bruce, Bursik Marcus, Hyman David, Comparative Analysis of the Structures and Outcomes of Geophysical Flow Models and Modeling Assumptions Using Uncertainty Quantification, Frontiers in Earth Science, 8, 2020. Crossref
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Yang Qingyuan, Pitman E. Bruce, Spiller Elaine, Bursik Marcus, Bevilacqua Andrea, Novel statistical emulator construction for volcanic ash transport model Ash3d with physically motivated measures, Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 476, 2242, 2020. Crossref
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Spiller Elaine T., Wolpert Robert L., Ogburn Sarah E., Calder Eliza S., Berger James O., Patra Abani K., Pitman E. Bruce, Volcanic Hazard Assessment for an Eruption Hiatus, or Post-eruption Unrest Context: Modeling Continued Dome Collapse Hazards for Soufrière Hills Volcano, Frontiers in Earth Science, 8, 2020. Crossref
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Zhao Hu, Amann Florian, Kowalski Julia, Emulator-based global sensitivity analysis for flow-like landslide run-out models, Landslides, 18, 10, 2021. Crossref
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Bevilacqua Andrea, Bertagnini Antonella, Pompilio Massimo, Landi Patrizia, Del Carlo Paola, Di Roberto Alessio, Aspinall Willy, Neri Augusto, Major explosions and paroxysms at Stromboli (Italy): a new historical catalog and temporal models of occurrence with uncertainty quantification, Scientific Reports, 10, 1, 2020. Crossref
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Aravena A., Bevilacqua A., de’ Michieli Vitturi M., Esposti Ongaro T., Neri A., Cioni R., Calibration strategies of PDC kinetic energy models and their application to the construction of hazard maps, Bulletin of Volcanology, 84, 3, 2022. Crossref
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Jones-Ivey Renette, Patra Abani, Bursik Marcus, Workflows for Construction of Spatio-Temporal Probabilistic Maps for Volcanic Hazard Assessment, Frontiers in Earth Science, 9, 2022. Crossref